Coronavirus outbreak: What should equity
investors do in current volatile market scenario
“I will tell you How To Become RICH. Be fearful when others are greedy and Be greedy when others are Fearful”. - Warren Buffet
The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is causing widespread concern and economic hardship for consumers, businesses and communities across the globe. The world is experiencing social distancing, travel restriction, restricted travel, scaling down of business operation, disruption of supply chain, reduced demand and an overall contraction of economic activity.
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“I will tell you How To Become RICH. Be fearful when others are greedy and Be greedy when others are Fearful”. - Warren Buffet
Introduction
The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is causing widespread concern and economic hardship for consumers, businesses and communities across the globe. The world is experiencing social distancing, travel restriction, restricted travel, scaling down of business operation, disruption of supply chain, reduced demand and an overall contraction of economic activity.
Fears of a
global Covid-19 pandemic have battered the stock market and the strain of the
virus is sending ripples through the stock market, business, and world economy.
Indian equity
markets have corrected significantly over the last one month (Nifty down ~26%
from its 52-week high of 12,362 to the lows of 16th March 20) in tandem with
global equity markets due to headwinds from the Covid-19 outbreak across
multiple countries
The brutality of
the stock market crash has caught everyone off guard. Within
20 trading days, starting 24 February, the Sensex has declined nearly 15,000
points
Nifty going down
to multi-month lows, investors are struggling to find the right stocks for
investing. There is a bearish sentiment in the market and hence, it is
imperative to note that what investor do in the current scenarios.
Ben
Graham, widely known as father of financial analysis, has taught three
generation how to navigate the market. Graham observed that an investor’s worst
enemy was not stock market but oneself.
Imagine
that you and Mr. Market (“Nifty/Sensex”)
are partners in a private business. Each day, without fail, Mr. Market quotes a
price at which he is willing to either to buy your interest or sell his.
The
business you both own is fortunate to have stable economics characteristics,
but. You see, Mr. Market is emotionally unstable. Some day he is cheerful and
can only see brighter days ahead. On these days, he quotes a very high price
for share in your business. On the other, hand Mr. Market is discouraged and,
seeing nothing but trouble ahead, quotes a very low price. If Mr. Market’s
quotes are ignored, he will be back again tomorrow with new quote. However, If
Mr. Market is in drunken mood, you are free to ignore him or take the advantage
of him.
Analysis
of Mr. Market and Impact of Corona-virus
In
the past couple of years, the Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) in local current prices has grown at annual rate of 16 % over
the 5 years. Please note the GDP rate includes the effect of price inflation
and it is NOT the real GDP. Further, it is imperative to note that the P/E (“Price- Earning Ratio”) since 5 months
was in in range bound 25-28. Whereas, in last couple of weeks due to the
pandemic Corona-virus shaved of the one third of the market cap and hit
dramatically. Consequently, P/E ratio scourge to 17-19. Thus, considering the
Current scenario we may say that to earn Rs.1 we need the investment of Rs. 17
P/E
Ratio = Price/ Earning = 17/1
Assuming
that due to pandemic Corona-virus the earnings would brutally whipped out, there
is going to be a slowdown of business operations, there would be NPA issues,
some of the sectors would virtually down, and some of them will be on the verge
of bankruptcy.
Considering
the fact, thus, assuming that earnings would fall from 1 to 0.5 and followed by
the principle of Efficient-market hypothesis, assuming that price would be
reflected at 8.5. Therefore, the P/E ratio would be 17. P/E Ratio = 8.5/0.5.
Now
further, assuming the fact that down the line 5 years, Indian
economy strives to recover from a slowdown and the earning would start
recovering, and GDP would start surging at annual rate of 15% Compounded
annually. Consequently, the earning would be double from Rs.1 to 2 and Mr.
Market again start trading at the P/E Ratio of 25.
Explaining
the mathematical pristine of the P/E ratio considering the aforesaid assumption
as follows:
P/E
ratio = Price/ Earning
25
= Price/ 2, Price = P/e * earning
Price
= 50.
Thus,
based on aforesaid assumption we may conclude that to earn Rs. 2 we need the
investment of Rs. 50.
Now
Synchronizing, the current scenario of the market with the aforesaid assumption
we may conclude that if we Invest Rs.17 in the current market and assuming that
the Mr. Market recover all the loss aversion and rationally correct itself in
the next 5 years and left over all the physical and mental languishments of
corona-virus the price would be Rs.50.
Therefore,
conclude that Rs. 17 invest in current market would be payoff the Rs.50.
Perhaps clear demonstrate the Mr. Market may compound at the rate of 25% from
current scenarios.
A
simple illustration let us imagine that you are running a business and you are
earning Rs. 1 Crore annually from your business, and market price of your
business is Rs.25 Crore. Thus, P/e ratio of your business exhibited at 25. Then
suddenly the pandemic corona-virus hit dramatically on economic hardship of your
business and your business earnings would start fading out goes to 0.5 Crore, having said that the price would rationally
followed, thereby assuming the price would be 8.5 Crore. Concluding that P/e
ratio is 17. Now my question to you would you sell your business.
If
answer is no, assuming the crisis of outbreak of pandemic is over and economy
start recovering and your business again start paying off and down the line 5
years the business start paying the earning of 2 Crore followed by the market
price of your business is Rs.50 Crore.
Market
cap to GDP (also known as the Buffet Indicator)
A
common metric of measuring whether market is overvalued or undervalued is to gauged
by the Indicator warren Buffet Indicator
The
Warren Buffet Indicators defined as total value of a market relative to the
economy GDP. A value below 100 per cent suggests the market is undervalued and
is due for recovery.
Considering
the present scenario
Current
Annual GDP: $2,879 billion US dollars or 216,455 in
billions of national currency and market cap on 26th March, 2020 is
97,728.60 billions of national currency (Source
NSE)
=97,728.60 / 216,455*100
=45.15%
Interpretation
If the Ratio is :
If the Ratio is :
- 50% to 75%, the market is said to be modestly undervalued
- 75% to 90%, the market may be fair valued
- 90% to 115%, the market is said to be modestly overvalued
Concluding,
that Mr. Market is displaying a collective frenzy leading
to a disruption in price discovery and sharp differences in bid-ask rates.
Key
takeaways from market cap to GDP
1.
In current Equity market outlook as on March 26,
2020, India’s Market Cap to GDP ratio sharply at 45.15% clearly shows that the
Mr. Market is trading certainly low and undervalued.
2.
The current Equity market is trading at the significant
margin of safety of more than 50%
3.
The
current market is trading significantly below to its intrinsic value.
4.
When
the cycle of greed and fear plays itself out over and Mr. Market start
recovering, it may certainly surge to 100%. Therefore, the clear indication of
more than 50% up trend from this point.
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AUTHOR: - JAIDEEP BHALLA
PARTNER AT A BIZ CHANCELLOR (ABC)
(A FIRM OF CORPORATE EXPERTS )
(Company Secretary (Aspirant), LL.B, B.COM Graduate, An Investment Portfolio analysts,
First Runner-up winner Moot Court Competition Organised by ICSI Noida Chapter)
Mobile No. 7838684213
PARTNER AT A BIZ CHANCELLOR (ABC)
(A FIRM OF CORPORATE EXPERTS )
(Company Secretary (Aspirant), LL.B, B.COM Graduate, An Investment Portfolio analysts,
First Runner-up winner Moot Court Competition Organised by ICSI Noida Chapter)
Mobile No. 7838684213
Disclaimer:
No reader should act on the basis of any statement contained herein without seeking professional advice. The results & the interpretation has been done on the basis of my understanding of the Act & Rules, where applicable and with reference to the general articles and analysis. The author explicitly disclaims any financial or other liability of any kind arising on account of any action taken pursuant to the results or interpretation of this document. With respect to information available herein before, the author doesn’t make any warranty, express/implied or assume any liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of such information.
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